Category: MarketBuzz

12 Oct
Worried

IIP – Broad-based slowdown

IIP – Broad-based slowdown IIP for August contracted 1.1% YoY vis-a-vis 4.3% YoY growth last month and expectation of 2% YoY growth. Given the volatility in monthly numbers, we prefer to analyse it on a trend basis (3MMA). On this basis, IIP decelerated to 1.7% YoY (from 3.6% YoY last month) with a broad-based slowdown […]

09 Oct
Industry

Cement – Q2FY20 result preview – Demand pangs; recovery in H2FY20 key

Cement – Q2FY20 result preview – Demand pangs; recovery in H2FY20 key The muted cement demand trend seen in Q1FY20 (owing to general elections) persisted through Q2FY20 amid ongoing economic slowdown and furious rains. While government data indicate flat volumes for H1FY20, industry participants estimate a dip of about 3%. Cement prices succumbed to volume […]

07 Oct
Oil

Oil and Gas – Q2FY20 result preview – GRM at multi-quarter highs

We expect OMCs to report stellar Q2FY20 earnings led by benchmark GRM almost doubling to USD6.6/bbl QoQ. Key highlights: 1) OMCs: We expect EBITDA to surge 30-70% QoQ driven by higher GRM & abatement of inventory losses; 2) RIL: We estimate EBITDA growth of 7.6% QoQ with refining strength offsetting petchem weakness; 3) CGD: While […]

07 Oct
Industry

Metals and Mining – Q2FY20 result preview-Slip, slide and tumble

Metals and Mining – Q2FY20 result preview-Slip, slide and tumble We expect companies under our coverage, particularly ferrous, to report tepid earnings in the wake of lower prices and weak demand. Key highlights: 1) Ferrous companies might suffer EBITDA compression of INR2,500–3,000/t. 2) Volumes are expected to decline for all major ferrous players, except JSPL. […]

04 Oct
RBI

Key Takeaways of Fourth Bi-Monthly RBI Monetary Policy

Key Takeaways of Fourth Bi-Monthly RBI Monetary Policy Key Policy rate Changes ·         The MPC have decided to maintain the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring that inflation remains within target and subsequently reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points […]

04 Oct
Consumer

Consumer Goods – Q2FY20 result preview – Slowdown bites

The consumer goods sector has been struggling against low growth for the past two quarters primarily due to the consumption slowdown in rural India. We anticipate this slowdown would worsen with revenue, EBITDA and PAT decelerating YoY to 6.4%, 10.9% and 18.3% in Q2FY20 from 8%, 14.8% and 13.8% in Q1FY20, respectively. That said, PAT […]

04 Oct
IT

IT – Q2FY20 result preview – Demand commentary to remain upbeat

We estimate the top five Indian IT players — Infosys, TECHM, HCLT, TCS and Wipro – would report organic revenue growth of 1.9–3.5% QoQ in constant currency (cc) in Q2FY20. However, a strengthening USD would pare 50–60bps of cc growth in our view. Barring TechM, we expect margins of the remaining four to rise by […]

03 Oct
Auto

Mahindra & Mahindra – Ford JV: Near term benefits visible; long term hazy

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) announced a joint venture (JV) with Ford India (FIPL) for 51% equity stake and 50% of the board seats. Key positives are: 1) widens the scope of the ongoing collaboration to include product development, manufacture & distribution; 2) brings cost synergies due to platform sharing, joint platform sharing (M&M expects this […]